Further to Minute No. 16 of the Cabinet meeting held on 3 July 2015, the Council considered the report of the Director of Built Environment which provided an update of key issues arising from the publication of the Local Plan and changes which have taken place since then, prior to the Plan being submitted for examination. The Council on 22 January 2015 had resolved to approve the draft Local Plan for publication and then submission to the Secretary of State for examination unless there was any material change to circumstances. The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) had subsequently updated their household projections in February 2015 and further work had been carried out to assess the implications of these for Sefton. These projections had been anticipated, and it had been expected that the housing requirement figure contained in the draft Plan would be able to accommodate any modest change which might result from these updated projections.
The report indicated that over the full 25 year period 2012-2037, the 2012-based household projections published by the DCLG in February 2015 projected annual household growth in Sefton of 533 per annum. This was a significant increase on the previous 2011-based (Interim) projections of 400 per annum between 2011 and 2021, and the 2008-based household projections of 323 per annum between 2008 and 2033. When comparing the 2012-based household projections of 533 per annum with the 2008-based projections of 323 per annum, this was a 65% increase, which was one of the highest rises experienced by any authority in the country.
This unexpected rise related in large part to under-recording of population in Liverpool during previous population projections and the incremental net migration to Sefton arising therefrom. This only came to light as information from the 2011 Census fed through into the most recent projections. This had been compounded by an ageing population and other trends in household formation in Sefton which had resulted in a growth in smaller households. The cumulative effect of all of these various factors had been significantly higher levels of household growth in the Borough than shown in previous household projections.
The Council’s consultants NLP had previously calculated the level of “objectively assessed needs” for housing in Sefton and they had updated their analysis to take account of the latest household projections. However, any update of this kind had to reflect the latest employment forecasts, as required by paragraph 158 of the National Planning Policy Framework. These employment forecasts, and the consequent labour supply implications, had also gone up significantly since earlier forecasts which were reflected in the housing land requirement contained in the draft Local Plan.
The report set out three potential options as to how the Council might respond to the updated analysis of objectively assessed needs for housing in Sefton which had been produced after taking legal advice from Counsel.
It was moved by Councillor Maher, seconded by Councillor Hardy:
That:
(1) the Local Plan be submitted for examination using the current agreed objectively assessed needs for housing of 615 a year;
(2) the Council commits to an immediate review of the draft Plan;
(3) as part of the Duty to Co-operate, the Council will collaborate with the other Liverpool City Region authorities to carry out a sub-regional Housing study, Employment study and Green Belt study; and
(4) officers urgently review and update the ‘Consequences Study’, and undertake further work reviewing the economic forecasts, social impact and related labour supply issues.
Following debate and in accordance with Rule 93 of Chapter 4 in the Constitution, the voting on the Motion was recorded and the Members of the Council present at the time, voted as follows:
FOR THE MOTION:
Councillors Atkinson, Bradshaw, Brennan, Byrom, Carr, Carragher, Cluskey, Cummins, Dams, Dowd, Friel, Gatherer, Grace, Hale, Hardy, John Kelly, John Joseph Kelly, Kerrigan, Killen, Lappin, Dan T. Lewis, Maher, McGinnity, McKinley, Moncur, Murphy, O’Brien, Owens, Page, Robinson, Roche, Sayers, Spencer, Thompson, Tweed, Veidman, Webster and the Mayor.
AGAINST THE MOTION:
Councillors David Barton, Bliss, Booth, Dawson, Dutton, Lord Fearn, Hartill, Jamieson, Jones, Keith, Daniel Lewis, McGuire, Preece, Shaw, Weavers and Welsh.
The Mayor declared that the Motion was carried by 38 votes to 16 and it was
RESOLVED:
That:
(1) the Local Plan be submitted for examination using the current agreed objectively assessed needs for housing of 615 a year;
(2) the Council commits to an immediate review of the draft Plan;
(3) as part of the Duty to Co-operate, the Council will collaborate with the other Liverpool City Region authorities to carry out a sub-regional Housing study, Employment study and Green Belt study; and
(4) officers urgently review and update the ‘Consequences Study’, and undertake further work reviewing the economic forecasts, social impact and related labour supply issues.
The Cabinet considered the report of the Director of Built Environment which provided an update of key issues arising from the publication of the Local Plan and changes which have taken place since then, prior to the Plan being submitted for examination. The Council on 22 January 2015 had resolved to approve the draft Local Plan for publication and then submission to the Secretary of State for examination unless there was any material change to circumstances. The Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) had subsequently updated their household projections in February 2015 and further work had been carried out to assess the implications of these for Sefton. These projections had been anticipated, and it had been expected that the housing requirement figure contained in the draft Plan would be able to accommodate any modest change which might result from these updated projections.
The Cabinet also considered a supplementary report of the Director of Built Environment which indicated that over the full 25 year period 2012-2037, the 2012-based household projections published by the CLG in February 2015 projected annual household growth in Sefton of 533 per annum. This was a significant increase on the previous 2011-based (Interim) projections of 400 per annum between 2011 and 2021, and the 2008-based household projections of 323 per annum between 2008 and 2033. When comparing the 2012-based household projections of 533 per annum with the 2008-based projections of 323 per annum, this was a 65% increase, which was one of the highest rises experienced by any authority in the country.
This unexpected rise related in large part to under-recording of population in Liverpool during previous population projections and the incremental net migration to Sefton arising there from. This only came to light as information from the 2011 Census fed through into the most recent projections. This had been compounded by an ageing population and other trends in household formation in Sefton which had resulted in a growth in smaller households. The cumulative effect of all of these various factors had been significantly higher levels of household growth in the Borough than shown in previous household projections.
The Council’s consultants NLP had previously calculated the level of “objectively assessed needs” for housing in Sefton and they had updated their analysis to take account of the latest household projections. However, any update of this kind had to reflect the latest employment forecasts, as required by paragraph 158 of the National Planning Policy Framework. These employment forecasts, and the consequent labour supply implications, had also gone up significantly since earlier forecasts which were reflected in the housing land requirement contained in the draft Local Plan.
The supplementary report set out three potential options as to how the Council might respond to the updated analysis of objectively assessed needs for housing in Sefton which had been produced after taking legal advice from Counsel.
Members of the Cabinet raised questions on the following issues referred to in the report and the Local Plan Manager, Mr S. Matthews responded to the issues as indicated below:
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Why are the 2012-household projections so high and can the figures be challenged?
Response: The projections have increased in large part to under-recording of population in Liverpool during previous population projections and the incremental net migration to Sefton arising therefrom. This only came to light as information from the 2011 Census fed through into the most recent projections.
The Council’s consultants NLP have discussed the figures with the Department for Communities and Local Government and the Office for National Statistics.
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What are the chances of Option 3 being accepted by the Planning Inspector
Response: It was considered that there was a 50/50 chance of the Inspector accepting the proposals set out in Option 3 of the supplementary report. It would depend on the Inspector’s interpretation of Government guidance and the application of policy.
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The employment forecasts and labour supply implications have gone up significantly. How will this impact on the current objectively assessed needs for housing?
Response: The Council would need to review and update the Consequences Study and undertake further work to review the implications for new housing of the economic forecasts and related labour supply issues in the Local Plan.
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All local authorities have a duty to co-operate. What is the possibility of some of the neighbouring authorities taking up some of the extra household need?
Response: Discussions would need to be held with officers of the Liverpool City Region authorities and West Lancashire Borough Council to explore the potential for addressing those needs which cannot be met in Sefton through sub-regional housing and employment studies, and a subsequent Green Belt study.
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A Cabinet Member enquired how the Council would communicate the message to objectors and other interested parties that the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) had increased the household projections and the Leader of the Council responded that the only way forward at this stage was to accept the proposals set out in Option 3 of the supplementary note and that following the Council meeting the full impact of the increased household projections and the proposed action to be taken be communicated to objectors, other interested parties and the public .
Decision Made:
(1) the report and supplementary report be noted; and
(2) the Council be recommended to:
(i) submit the Local Plan for examination using the current agreed objectively assessed needs for housing of 615 a year;
(ii) commit to an immediate review of the draft Plan;
(iii) as part of the Duty to Co-operate, collaborate with the other Liverpool City Region authorities to carry out a sub-regional Housing study, Employment study and Green Belt study; and
(iv) urgently review and update the ‘Consequences Study’, and undertake further work reviewing the economic forecasts and related labour supply issues
Reasons for Decision:
To brief Members on the issues arising from the publication of the draft Local Plan and the change of circumstances on the household projections since the Plan was published.
Alternative Options Considered and Rejected:
Not to brief Members, and to submit the Plan direct to Secretary of State. However, it was considered important to alert Members to the change of circumstances on the household projections as set out in Section 6 of the report.